Fig. 6

Performance of best prediction models (binary and ternary Predomics models and random forest models) of PWH vs. control groups on hold-out datasets. (A) Best Predomics bininter models for the classification of PWH vs. the 3 control groups. Left panel represents the MGS (x-axis) included in each model (y-axis) with colors representing the feature importance (mean decrease accuracy) and labels representing the sign of the association between groups (PWH = increased in PWH group; C = increased in control group). Right panel represents the AUC of each best model vs. different hold-out datasets (x-axis). Internal holdouts correspond to 5 PWH and 5 control samples from each of the three control groups unseen during the training process. External holdouts correspond to PWH and control samples coming from two external quantitative metagenomics studies (PRJNA692830: 13 PWH ART-controlled and 12 healthy controls; PRJNA391226: 61 PWH and 10 healthy controls) for which MGS abundances in the IGC reference space has been generated (see methods for details). (B) and (C) represent the same results as (A) for the best Predomics terinter models and random forest models respectively. In panel C, the left panel is limited to the top 20 MGS with the highest GINI score in each model